Risk Analysis According to Kinney (Kinney-method)

Kinney-method

Likelihood:

Exposure:

Consequences:

Risk score:

Cost Effectiveness

Risk reduction multiplier:

Total cost of risk reduction:

Justification factor:

One of the best-known methods for quantifying risks is the Kinney method. The founder of this method is W.T. Fine. This method was published in 1971 in the Journal of Safety Research. In 1976, the method was updated by G.F. Kinney and A.D. Wiruth so that it would be more practically applicable. In 1980, it was updated again by G.F. Kinney and K.J. Graham.

Attention

The online calculator is based on the 1980 article. Inflation has not been taken into account. The amounts may now be higher. The original article used the dollar as currency. I have put it in euros without changing the amounts. So the exchange rate has not been taken into account. The amounts may also differ per country.

Definitions

Hazard: some potential danger beyond one's immediate control. Thus, hazards are events or situations that can possibly go wrong.

Risk: the chance that injury or damage will result from that particular hazard. Thus, risks are quantitative statistical items (probabilities) that characterize the potential results of a hazard.

Examples of hazards:

  1. riding in an automobile,
  2. working at an industrial job,
  3. sitting at a desk all day.

Examples of risks:

  1. the probability of being killed or injured in an automobile accident,
  2. the probability of being killed or disabled on the job,
  3. the probability of dying from a heart attack as a result of being overweight or out of physical condition due to a sedentary job.

Acceptable risk: a risk that does not deter a knowledgeable and prudent person.

Three Maxims of an Optimum, Positive Safety Program

  1. All hazard and all risk can never be completely eliminated.
  2. Risks from ever present hazards can be reduced.
  3. The optimum safety program provides overall risk reduction rather than complete elimination of a few selected risks.

Risk Analysis

An overall risk score (R) is determined as a product of the three individual factors:

  1. The likelihood (L) that some hazardous event will occur.
  2. The exposure (E) to that particular hazardous situation.
  3. The possible consequences (C) should the hazardous event actually occur.

Formula:
R = L x E x C

Tables to calculate the risk score:

(L)
Assigned values for hazardous event likelihoods
Numeric Descriptive
10 Might well be expected
6 Quite possible
3 Unusual, but possible
1 Only remotely possible
0.5 Conceivable, but highly unlikely
0.2 Practically impossible
0.1 Virtually impossible
(E)
Assigned values for exposure factors
Numeric Descriptive
10 Continuous
6 Daily
3 Weekly or occasionally
2 Monthly
1 A few times per year
0.5 Very rare
(C)
Assigned values for possible consequences
Numeric Descriptive Monetary
100 Catastrophe, many fatalities > €10 000 000
40 Disaster, multiple fatalities €1 000 000 - €10 000 000
15 Very serious, a fatality €100 000 - €1 000 000
7 Serious, serious injury €10 000 - €100 000
3 Important, disability €1 000 - €10 000
1 Noticeable, first aid may be needed €100 - €1 000
(R)
Risk score values
Numeric Descriptive
> 320 Very high risk; consider discontinuing operation.
160 - 320 High risk; immediate correction required.
70 - 160 Substantial risk; correction required.
20 - 70 Possible risk; attention needed.
< 20 Some slight risk; perhaps acceptable.

Calculate Cost Effectiveness

Terminology

Risk reduction multiplier: the value given to a risk-reducing measure. The value is 1 if the risk is completely eliminated and 0 if the measure has no effect. For example, a measure that would reduce the risk by 60% is given a value of 0.6.

Cost divisor is the cube root of the total cost of the measure divided by 100. This amount is in euros and also includes overhead costs.

Formula:

Justification factor is a measure of cost effectiveness for the proposed action.

Formula:


A justification value of less than 10 indicates that a proposal is of doubtful merit. The risk reduction it provides does not justify the indicated expenditure of time, effort and money. In this case, endeavors should be directed to other situations. Values between 10 and 20 indicate an action that is justified. Experience also suggests that a justification value greater than 20 indicates a highly worthwhile risk-reduction action.

Example Calculation

After a risk analysis of a situation, you calculated a risk score of 200. This is considered a high risk. With a technical measure, you can reduce the risk by 90%. The risk reduction multiplier is therefore 0.9. The total cost of the measure is €25,000. The cost divisor is the cube root of 25,000/100 = 6.3. The justification factor or cost-effectiveness is 0.9/6.3 x 200 = 28.6. The value is more than 20, so a valuable investment to improve safety.

Original publications of Fine, Kinney, Wiruth and Graham